000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC MON JAN 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 06N111W TO 04N125W TO 03N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N128W
DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH TUE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. A COLD FRONT NW
OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE TUE. LARGE LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NW WATERS MON
THROUGH TUE...WITH MAX SEAS TO 14-15 FT TUE SUBSIDING TO 11-12
FT BY WED. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 115W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH TRADES REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS WEAKENED
THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT WITHIN THE
NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SHIFTS
NE. MAX SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ERODE
THROUGH TUE...GRADUALLY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER PULSE OF MAX WINDS TO 30 KT
ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EARLY MON...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
NE SWELL FROM THIS EVENT IS MIXING WITH THE NE SWELL FROM
TEHUANTEPEC AND LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL...CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
8-10 FT SEAS...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG N WINDS THROUGH PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 03N WILL DIMINISH MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. EXTENT OF THE
WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHRINK NORTHWARD TO 05N THROUGH MON THEN
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE MORNING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN
ALONG WITH TROUGHING ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BETWEEN TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL