000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SUN JAN 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N84W TO 05N89W TO 03N96W TO 05N110W TO
05N132W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N128W
DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH TUE AND WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT NW OF THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA MON
THEN DISSIPATE LATE TUE. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NW WATERS MON THROUGH TUE...WITH
MAX SEAS TO 14-15 FT TUE SUBSIDING TO 11-12 FT BY WED. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 115W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH TRADES REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS WEAKENED
THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT EARLY MON AS
THE DRIVING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SHIFTS NE. MAX 
SEAS 10-11 FT WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MON...AND WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE. NE SWELL FROM THIS EVENT IS MIXING WITH THE NE SWELL
FROM TEHUANTEPEC AND LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL...CREATING WIDESPREAD
AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...20-30 KT N WINDS THROUGH PANAMA INTO THE GULF
OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO 03N WILL DIMINISH MON MORNING AS HIGH
PRES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS.
EXTENT OF THE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHRINK NORTHWARD TO 05N
THROUGH MON THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE MORNING. 

$$
MUNDELL