000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN JAN 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13.5N96W. THESE WINDS WERE
CONFIRMED BY THE 1624 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM SAT. THE 0330 UTC
ASCAT FROM LAST NIGHT CAPTURED THE FAR SW FRINGE OF THE GALE
FORCE WINDS. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT NOTED
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 11-16 FT WITHIN THE GALE AREA WITH THE MAX
OF THESE SEAS NEAR 15N96W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON THE
DIMINISHING TREND...AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO JUST BELOW GALE
FORCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-11 FT.
AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER WEAKENS INTO TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH TO
20-25 KT AND TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE 0330 UTC ASCATB PASS FROM
LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N E OF 87W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE
ASCAT PASS REVEALED A LARGE AREA OF NE 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE
FROM 09N-12N E OF 89W. THE 20-30 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT MON AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NE SWELL GENERATED
BY THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 8-9 FT AS THEY SPREAD SW
AWAY FROM THE GULF TO WITHIN AN AREA CONFINED FROM 07N-10N
BETWEEN 89W-95W DURING MON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N84W TO 03N91W TO 05N105W TO 05N114W.
IT RESUMES AT 05N120W TO 05N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W-105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 31.N131W WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING SE TO NEAR 18N117W AND ANOTHER RIDGE SW TO W OF THE
AREA AT 26N140W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS OF 8-11 FT OVER MAJORITY OF
THE AREA N OF 05N W OF ABOUT 112W DUE TO NW SWELL. THE HIGHEST
OF THESE SEAS IS CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA.
FRESH-STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA WILL
MAINTAIN 8-10 FT SEAS NEAR COAST OF NRN BAJA THROUGH MON. 

A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ON THE 06Z ANALYSIS.
ONE ALONG 132W FROM 01N-08N...THE OTHER FROM 10N112W TO 03N116W. 
DEEP CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER WITH THE TROUGHS HAS DECREASED.
DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG 10N112W-03N116W LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD OVER IT PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR THE CONVECTION TO FORM.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MON
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG S-SW WINDS WITH SEAS
OF 8-10 FT. NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
W OF A LINE FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT AT
THAT TIME. BY LATE MON NIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAKENING ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N138W TO 28N140W. LARGE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS OF 12-15 FT NW OF THE FRONT. NW
SWELL OF 8-12 FT IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LINE FROM
32N133W TO 18N140W BY LATE MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE. 

GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS S OF PANAMA ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING AS
FAR S AS 03N BY MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT LATE
TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE