000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SUN JAN 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N96W. AN ASCAT PASS AT
1624 UTC PROVIDED EXCELLENT COVERAGE OF THE GALE AREA...AND WAS
USED TO DESCRIBE THE EXTENT OF GALE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT IN 18 HOURS...AND 20 KT OR LESS SUN NIGHT.
MAX SEAS OF 15-16 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT THROUGH SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...HI-RES GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM
10.5N TO 11.5N E OF 87W DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...
FROM 06Z TO 18Z THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. A LARGER AREA OF 20-30 KT
WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO TO AROUND 07N94W SUN
AND TO AROUND 09N89W MON. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE AREA OF
GALES...EXPECT MAX SEAS TO ONLY REACH 10-11 FT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO 03N92W TO 05N104W TO 06N115W TO
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS
BETWEEN 100W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 13N W OF
112W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PAST 6-8 HOURS SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W...AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS 8-11
FT OVER MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 05N W OF 115W...PRIMARILY IN
NW SWELL. FRESH-STRONG NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF S CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN 8-10 FT SEAS NEAR COAST OF NRN BAJA THROUGH MON. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FAR NW WATERS MON...WITH FRESH S-SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A NEW SET OF
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN NW WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO COSTA RICA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS PANAMA
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS S OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING AS FAR S AS 03N
BY MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT SUN THROUGH MON.

$$
MUNDELL