000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN 1028 MB HIGH PRES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE ITCZ TO THE S. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE STORM FORCE THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO A STRONG GALE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE SUN AND BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT EARLY MON AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE 14-21 FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 FT BY SUNRISE SUN AND BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N86W TO 03N92 TO 06N110W TO 04N130W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 105W...WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-112W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-132W. ...DISCUSSION... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N122W SW TO 28N125W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 330 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS TO 13 FT ACROSS WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 127W-133W. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER N WATERS LATER TODAY...BUT THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA W OF 108W THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER BY MON MORNING...WITH 8- 11 FT SEAS PERSISTING N OF 20N TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN 112W-123W AND S OF 16N W OF 100W AT THAT TIME. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED W OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N136W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ N W OF 125W EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK...FAST-MOVING...LOW-LEVEL TROUGH JUST N OF THE ITCZ CURRENTLY NEAR 130W IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SW WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE BELIEVED TO BE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N-10N W OF 133W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...DIMINISHING THE PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO JOG TO THE E OVER N WATERS...REACHING 127W BY MON MORNING...AS A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW WATERS. GAP WINDS... GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND THE ITCZ TO THE S HAS ALLOWED NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE LATER THIS MORNING ONLY TO RETURN TO AROUND 30 KT EARLY SUN WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRES GRADIENT. THIS PULSING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL ALSO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE SUN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GULF OF PANAMA...HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING S THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS PANAMA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N- NE WINDS S OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT...REACHING AS FAR S AS 03N BY MON MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS THE 8-10 FT RANGE. $$ SCHAUER