000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SAT JAN 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO S 
MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STORM FORCE...AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SEAS BUILDING 18-20 FT TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 10-15 FT BY SUNRISE SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN NIGHT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO 06N101W TO 06N123W TO 00N131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF
AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 106W...AND BETWEEN 114W AND 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 23N136W. LARGE
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY THIS FRONT IS SWEEPING S-SE
ACROSS NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. THE SWELL WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES
WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND N OF 30N....WITH A
HIGH EXPECTED NEAR 32N137W BY SAT MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON.

GAP WINDS...
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING
HIGH PRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ITCZ WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME
EARLY SAT...AND PULSE TO 30 KT PRIMARILY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THIS WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S
OF PANAMA SAT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS AN AREA N OF
03N SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. 

$$
MUNDELL