000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO
GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE STORM
FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH SAT MORNING...AND DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT BY EARLY SAT
AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15 FT BY SUNRISE SUN. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 06N103W TO 04N125W TO 01N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
117W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 23N139W. LARGE
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY THIS FRONT IS SWEEPING S-SE
ACROSS NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. THE SWELL WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. A RIDGE
CENTERED ON 1022 HIGH PRES NEAR 31N120W IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
AHEAD THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE DYING FRONT
THIS WEEKEND N OF 30N....WITH A HIGH EXPECTED NEAR 32N137W BY
SAT MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-140W TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
TO BRING WIDESPREAD FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W BY MON.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
THE SW UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO IS GENERATING
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
GULF FROM 24N-29N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING
HIGH PRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ITCZ WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME
EARLY SAT...AND PULSE TO 30 KT PRIMARILY IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THIS WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S
OF PANAMA SAT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS AN AREA N OF
03N SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. 

$$
MUNDELL