000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1245 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
RAPIDLY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME STORM FORCE THIS EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE SAT...AND DIMINISH TO A
STRONG GALE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE SUN. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL
BUILD TO THE RANGES OF 14-21 FT BY EARLY SAT AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 FT BY SUNRISE SUN. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N85W TO 06N96W TO 02N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS JUST W
OF THE AXIS IN THE AREA S OF 00N W OF 137W. A TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED E OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
06N77W TO 02N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N126W SW TO 22N140W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
E OF 35N. A REINFORCING FRONT WAS ANALYZED BEHIND THE LEADING
FRONT FROM 32N133W TO 30N139W. THIS FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH THE
LEADING FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LARGE...LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL
PRODUCING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 12-18 FT PRIMARILY ACROSS WATERS
N OF 29N W OF 123W WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS W OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT. THE LEAD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM 32N121W TO 30N123W TO 20N140W AROUND SUNRISE SAT.
THE SWELL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA W
OF 108W THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH THE MAXIMUM SWELL SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT BY THAT TIME.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE 1021
MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT NEAR
31N121W. THIS HIGH WILL SOON BE DISPLACED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING
THE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS...WITH A 1024 MB
CENTER EXPECTED NEAR 32N137W BY SAT MORNING. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-140W EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE EASTERN HIGH IS
SQUEEZED BY THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT
REBUILDING HIGH PRES W OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD FRESH TRADES N OF THE
ITCZ W OF 120W.

GAP WIND...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
THE SW UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO IS STILL
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE GULF FROM 24N-28N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES AND GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.
 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND PULSE TO 30 KT PRIMARILY IN
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ITCZ. THIS
PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP S OF PANAMA EARLY SAT...BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA N OF 03N UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT
AND EARLY SUN. 

$$
SCHAUER