000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES SURGING SOUTHWARD
ALONG EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE AND STRONG
GALE BY DAYBREAK TODAY...INCREASING TO STORM FORCE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING SAT AFTERNOON.
STRONG GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER INTO
SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE RANGES OF 11-19 FT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 14-21 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND TO 8-13 FT SUN. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N86W TO 06N98W TO 04N130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 01N TO 05N W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N128W SW TO 23N140W. THE 0504UTC
ASCAT PASS REVEALED LIGHTER WINDS E OF THE FRONT THAN MENTIONED
IN EARLIER FORECASTS WITH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 15-20
KT N OF ABOUT 28N. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT IS LARGE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 12-16 FT W OF A
LINE FROM 32N126W TO 16N140W WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS N OF
28N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY AS IT REACHES FROM
NEAR 32N125W TO 26N132W AND STATIONARY TO 22N140W TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHES IT...AND MERGES WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT BY EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE NE PORTION ON SUN.

HIGH PRES OF 1022 MB IS LOCATED E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 29N122W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 20N. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWED FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-140W. THE
HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH TRADES
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD W OF THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO
HAS INDUCED AN AREA OF STRONG NW WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY TONIGHT AS 
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS
IN THE 8-9 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SMALL PATCH OF SEAS TO 10 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
S OF PANAMA LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE