000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC FRI JAN 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES SURGING SOUTHWARD
ALONG EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE AND STRONG
GALE BY SUNRISE FRI...INCREASING TO STORM FORCE FRI AFTERNOON.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SAT MORNING...WITH GALES PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY SUN. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT...THEN SUBSIDE SAT THROUGH MON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N86W TO 06N98W TO 04N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. NW SWELL WILL
SWEEP E-SE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WATERS W OF 110W
THROUGH EARLY SAT. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W
LATE SUN NIGHT.

HIGH PRES CENTERED E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 32N120W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-140W. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH TRADES DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD W OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-8 FT AS A
RESULT OF THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESUME LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT DURING STRONGEST WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
S OF PANAMA LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL