000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC THU JAN 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD ALONG EASTERN MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT WINDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE AND STRONG GALE BY SUNRISE FRI...
INCREASING TO STORM FORCE FRI AFTERNOON. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SAT MORNING...WITH GALES PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY SUN. MAX SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN SUBSIDE
SAT THROUGH MON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N88W TO 06N96W TO 05N120W TO 03N137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS EXTENDS FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF
28N WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 18 FT
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY EARLY FRI. NW SWELL WILL SWEEP E-SE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH EARLY SAT. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH 30N140W LATE SUN NIGHT.

HIGH PRES CENTERED E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 32N119W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 20N. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-140W. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH TRADES DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD W OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-8 FT AS A
RESULT OF THESE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL RESUME LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT DURING STRONGEST WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
S OF PANAMA LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL