000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC THU JAN 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS FRI MORNING AND LEAD TO
ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING SUDDENLY FROM 20 KT OR LESS TO
30-40 KT AROUND 12Z FRI...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 35-45 KT AT
18Z. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-18 FT. EXPECT GALE FORCE
WINDS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS FRI EVENING AND FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT. SO...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A STORM WARNING WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N81W TO 05N105W TO 05N111W TO
03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW CORNER AND EXTENDS FROM
30N137W TO 28N140W AT 0600 UTC. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W.
AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY REACHING A POSITION
FROM 30N130W TO 26N135W TO 23N140W BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS NEAR 18-20
FT THIS MORNING IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH 30N140W LATE ON MON. 

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR
29N124W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A
BELT OF FRESH TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 05N-11N W OF 120W. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN...HIGH PRES IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES LATE TODAY AND
FRI WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 25 KT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 8 FT.

GAP WINDS...

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 20-30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FORCING FOR THE GAP WIND EVENT...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH TODAY. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AGAIN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FUNNEL FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TO 3N-4N BY EARLY SUN
MORNING AS A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

$$ 
GR