000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC THU JAN 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS FRI MORNING AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS WINDS INCREASING SUDDENLY FROM 20 KT OR LESS TO 30-35 KT
AROUND 12Z FRI...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 35-45 KT AT 18Z. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-18 FT. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH SUN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE WINDS
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N81W TO 04N92W TO TO 01N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

SCATTEROMETER DATA AROUND 1548 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 25-30 KT
GAP WINDS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC. FORCING FOR
THE GAP WIND EVENT INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU. BECAUSE THE FORCING FROM THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER WEST...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL EXPERIENCE A GALE FRI AND SAT. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON FRI-SAT WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH 8-10 FT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...N OF 28N W OF 132W. THE
COMBINATION OF SW WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
PRODUCE WAVE HEIGHTS 10-16 FT TONIGHT. FRESH W-NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS N WATERS
THROUGH FRI AND GENERATE A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED
SEAS TO 18-20 FT THU MORNING IN FAR NW WATERS. NW SWELL WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 12 FT SATURDAY. AFTER THIS FRONT...NO ADDITIONAL
COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES LATE THU AND
FRI WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 25 KT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 8 FT.

$$ 
MUNDELL