000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC WED JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE SURGING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS FRI MORNING AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS WINDS INCREASING SUDDENLY FROM 20 KT OR LESS TO 30-35 KT
AROUND 12Z FRI...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 35-45 KT AT 18Z. SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE IN
PLACE THROUGH SUN WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE WINDS
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N81W TO 05N93W TO 05N116W TO 02N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

SCATTEROMETER DATA AROUND 1548 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 25-30 KT
GAP WINDS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC. FORCING FOR
THE GAP WIND EVENT INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING THROUGH THU. BECAUSE THE FORCING FROM THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER WEST...IT IS NOT
LIKELY THAT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL EXPERIENCE A GALE FRI AND
SAT. WAVE HEIGHTS ON FRI-SAT WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH 8-10 FT.

A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA FROM 36N136W TO 27N147W IS PRODUCING
STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...N OF 28N W OF 137W. THESE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR GALE N OF 30N
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SW WIND WAVES AND PRE-EXISTING LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PRODUCE WAVE HEIGHTS 10-14 FT THIS EVENING.
FRESH W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS N WATERS THROUGH FRI...AND GENERATE A FRESH SET OF
NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 18-20 FT BY THU MORNING IN
FAR NW WATERS. NW SWELL WILL DIMINISH BELOW 12 FT ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THIS FRONT...NO ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES LATE THU AND
FRI WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 25 KT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 8 FT.

THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY OVERRUN BY 8 TO 11 FT NW
SWELL FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$ 
MUNDELL