000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC TUE JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N82W TO 05N93W TO 05N115W TO 03N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 110W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

QUITE ACTIVE CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GALE EVENTS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED
TO NEAR GALE.

WHILE NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...FORCING OF THE GAP WIND EVENT HAS
BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING AND ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE GALE HAS ENDED.  THUS THE GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IS DROPPED. THIS EVENT SHOULD COMPLETELY FADE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE MEXICO BY FRIDAY
MORNING...LEADING TOWARD ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT. GALE TO STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE EVENT COULD PEAK AS A STORM EVENT...BUT
CURRENTLY NO GUIDANCE IS INDICATING STORM FORCE AND EVEM THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM WINDS.
CURRENTLY WAVE HEIGHTS MAY PEAK NEAR 20 FT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SATURDAY.

LIKEWISE...THE FORCING FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT
HAS BEEN DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND PEAK WINDS HAVE LIKELY
DROPPED TO NEAR GALE OR STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL
ADDITIONALLY WEAKEN SOME...BUT STAY NEAR ENOUGH TO OUR 25 KT/8
FT CRITERIA TO CONTINUE INDICATING THE EVENT IN OUR HIGH SEAS
FORECAST. BECAUSE THE FORCING FROM THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER WEST...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WILL EXPERIENCE A GALE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH 8 TO 10 FT.

NOT WANTING TO BE LEFT OUT...THE GULF OF PANAMA IS ALSO ACTIVE
THIS MORNING WITH A GAP WIND EVENT.  CONDITIONS HERE ARE FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE NE WINDS.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE WITH SW
SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ARE CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FT.  FORCING FOR THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS QUICKLY FADING AND
SHOULD DROP BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WEST OF OUR AREA IS PRODUCING STRONG BREEZE SW
WINDS NEAR 30N140W.  THESE SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF THE SW WIND
WAVES AND PRE-EXISTING NW SWELL WILL PRODUCE WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO
14 FT THIS EVENING.  WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY FRESH
BREEZE NW WINDS.  ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA
AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE NW SWELL SHOULD PEAK AROUND
18 FT NEAR 30N140W AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL WAVE GUIDANCE. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE-BASED WAVE WATCH III MODEL SUGGESTS AT LEAST A 25
PERCENT CHANCE OF 18 FT WAVE HEIGHTS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N136W
TO 28N140W TOMORROW MORNING.  ON FRIDAY...THE NW SWELL WILL
BEGIN DIMINISHING AND LIKELY DROP BELOW 12 FT ON SATURDAY. AFTER
THIS FRONT...NO ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN
OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD CAUSE ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AS STRONG BREEZE NW
WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING 8 FT.

THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY OVERRUN BY 8 TO 11 FT NW
SWELL FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$ 
LANDSEA