000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH E OF 95W IN THE N PACIFIC IS MAINTAINING
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRES WILL
SHIFT NE AND WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON.
MAX SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 14-15 FT THIS EVENING.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA N OF 07N E OF 94W...AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO. MAX WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE
WED. MAX SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 13-14 FT THIS EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 01N80W TO 04N95W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N95W TO 07N111W TO 04N130W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 90W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 02N W OF 136W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO NEAR 18N110W AND SW TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES FROM 05N-16N W OF 128W. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW
WATERS WED NIGHT. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO
25-30 KT OVER FAR NW WATERS WED. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS N
WATERS THROUGH FRI...AND USHER IN A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS WITH
COMBINED SEAS REACHING 19-20 FT BY THU MORNING IN FAR NW WATERS. 
 
STRONG N-NE WINDS FUNNELING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 03N WITH SEAS TO
8-11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-9 FT AS THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE W CARIBBEAN
RELAXES.

NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE COMBINED ONGOING GALE WIND EVENTS IN
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL MERGE DOWNSTREAM TO PRODUCE A VERY
LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR MORE EXTENDING BEYOND 100W. LARGE
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT REACHING WATERS
E OF 100W AND MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND THE NE
SWELL GENERATED IN THE GAP WIND REGIONS. AS A RESULT...SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER DOMINATES NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE MAIN
EXCEPTIONS ARE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND LEE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL