000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THE N TO NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. EXPECT MAXIMUM
SEAS TO BUILD TO ABOUT 17 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N96W WED MORNING. EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE
FLOW OF 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT...BUT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE
SWELL WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND N
SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 100W.
SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS
09N90W...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE TUE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13
FT DOWNWIND NEAR 09N89W. THE EXTENT OF STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL
WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND N SWELL
FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 100W. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 2N78W 2N81W TO 4N90W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N120W TO 1N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 119W AND 128W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 132W
AND 138W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N107W TO 7N110W
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 105W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A
QUASI-STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N124W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO 15N113W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY ONLY
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BUT NW SWELL...IN THE FORM
OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...ARE ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N105W.
THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SWELLS OF THE GALE WARNING AREAS AND A SW SWELL OVERNIGHT. 
    
S OF 15N...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GENERATE STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 4N TO 10N W OF 122W
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. NW SWELL AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO 105W AND WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO BEYOND 100W. FURTHER EAST...THE GALE
WARNINGS ARE FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
IN ADDITION STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE
RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL...N SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT...NE SWELL FROM
PAPAGAYO...AND THE NW SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS REMAINDER OF THE E
PACIFIC WATERS E OF 100W. 

$$ 
PAW