000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
2205 UTC SUN JAN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THE N WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE ON
WED. EXPECT MAXIMUM SEAS TO BUILD TO ABOUT 18 FT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N96W WED MORNING. EXPECT MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE FLOW OF 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT...BUT GALE FORCE WINDS TO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THU NIGH/EARLY FRI MORNING. SEE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE PULSES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS
09N90W...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FT DOWNWIND
NEAR 08N81W. THE EXTENT OF STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SW OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL
IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND N SWELL FROM
THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 93W. SEE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 3N80W 5N87W TO 4N90W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N100W TO 2N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 118W AND 133W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A
QUASI-STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N125W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SE TO 15N112W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING
GENTLE MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF 100W. NW SWELLS...IN THE
FORM OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA PENINSULA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH 7-10 SEAS EXPECTED STARTING MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N105W TONIGHT.
    
S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS
N OF 04N W OF 114W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXTEND S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO E OF 24 TODAY AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER
S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BY WED.  
 
ELSEWHERE FROM EQUATOR TO 32N W OF 120W...STRONG NE TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 4N TO 10N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED WITH SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND
LONG PERIOD N SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 8-13 FT ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 105W. THESE SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE BUT EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA
DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION WED AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA EARLY ON
WED NIGHT. 

$$
PAW