000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JAN 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. THEREAFTER THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE ON WED. EXPECT MAXIMUM SEAS TO BUILD TO ABOUT 17 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N96W TONIGHT. EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW OF 25 KT LATE WED NIGHT...BUT MINIMAL GALE FORCE DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG ENE PULSES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 09N89W... INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 13 FT NEAR 09N89W. THE EXTENT OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 07N96W ON TUE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...THEN EVENTUALLY MIX WITH N SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 93W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 04N78W WHERE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPEARS INTERMITTENTLY NEAR 04N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FLARES NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW AT 04N78W TO 05N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W THROUGH 04N120W...THEN DIPS SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 06N98W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N112W TO 04N130W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 28N120W TO 16N101W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110- 120W...5-10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT DEVELOPING TO THE E OF 97W. NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 28N WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 24-27N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY SUPPORTING ONLY NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT TONIGHT. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH 7-10 SEAS EXPECTED ON TUE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 7 FT OR GREATER SHOULD REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18-21N TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUE. S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W OF 106W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXTEND S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER S TO ALONG 02N ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 05N81W. ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-10N W OF 127W THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON TUE NIGHT. $$ NELSON