000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JAN 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 40-45 KT AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 16-17 FT BY TUE MORNING. THIS SECOND GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING...BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH A GALE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER THAT WILL EXTEND SW TO BEYOND 100W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT A SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO BEYOND 90W. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS A LARGE AREA DOWNWIND OF THE GULF COVERING THE WATERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 09N90W TO 08N93W BY TUE AFTERNOON. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH THE NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WATERS E OF 105W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N82W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N90W TO 07N100W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N124W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 120W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 31N124W BY WED EVENING AS A NEW COLD FRONT REACHES 30N140W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MAINLY S OF 28N AS NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS LATER TODAY. LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...23-25 SECONDS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 3.4S116W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 2N-3N LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT WITH THESE WINDS BY TUE AFTERNOON. FRESH NE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. $$ GR