000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 14.5N95.5W. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE. EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. REINFORCING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MON WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AGAIN...WITH MINIMAL GALE WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON MON EVENING AND QUICKLY INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE WITH WINDS TO 45 KT ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. THIS SECOND GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A MAXIMUM 30 KT DRAINAGE AT SUNRISE ON WED AND 25 KT ON THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...FRESH NE PULSES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASING TO STRONG OVERNIGHT... THEN BECOMING NE NEAR GALE FORCE DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON EARLY TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT NEAR 9N88W. THE EXTENT OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 09N91W ON TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 07N96W ON TUE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH THE SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND THE LONG SWELL COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N88W TO 05N94W. ITCZ FROM 05.94W TO 08N109W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N11W TO 05N124W TO 04N136W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 118W TO125W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ FROM 14N104W TO 09N109W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 30N123W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE 20N110W. STRONG WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS TO THE S OF 29N FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELLS IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E INTO THE AREA WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...AND REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 105W LATE MON NIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUE. S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N BETWEEN 78W-81W...INCLUDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN TONIGHT SUPPORTING STRONG N WINDS BY EARLY MON...WITH THE WATERS N OF 03N BETWEEN 79.5W-82W EXPERIENCING NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON TUE. ELSEWHERE FROM 00N TO 32N E OF 140W...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 29N140W BUT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05N-10N W OF 125W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT THEN SUBSIDING DUE TO MIXING S AND N SWELL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE ON WED. $$ PAW