000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JAN 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING ARE TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 15N95W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE. EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 30 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. REINFORCING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MON WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AGAIN...WITH MINIMAL GALE WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON MON AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE WITH WINDS TO 45 KT ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. THIS SECOND GALE EVENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH A MAXIMUM 30 KT DRAINAGE AT SUNRISE ON WED AND 25 KT ON THU. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...FRESH ENE PULSES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASING TO STRONG TONIGHT... THEN BECOMING NE AT NEAR GALE FORCE DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. EXPECT MOSTLY 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 10N88W. THE EXTENT OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 07N93W ON TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 07N96W ON TUE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL IMMEDIATELY MIX WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...THEN EVENTUALLY MIX WITH N SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 93W. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING FROM 03-07N E OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 05N107W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WNW TO 07N112W...THEN TURNS SW AND WIGGLES TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N78W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N109W TO 05N128W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N130W TO 07N133W TO 07N138W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 30N123W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 28N120W TO 15N104W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 106-120W...W- NW 5-10 KT N OF 15N BETWEEN 97-106W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT IN PROGRESS E OF 97W. NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS TO THE S OF 29N FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE NW SWELLS IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E INTO THE AREA WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT...AND REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 102-104W ON MON NIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUE. EXPECT THE NW FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON ON MON NIGHT. S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N BETWEEN 78-81W...INCLUDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN TONIGHT SUPPORTING STRONG N WINDS BY EARLY MON...WITH THE WATERS N OF 03N BETWEEN 79.5-82W EXPERIENCING NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON TUE. ELSEWHERE FROM 00N TO 32N E OF 140W...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION NEAR 30N140W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IMMEDIATELY STALL AND DISSIPATE. GENERALLY EXPECT STRONG SW FLOW TO PRECEDE THE FRONTS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28.5N. STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-10N W OF 127W THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO MIXING S AND N SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 114W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE... EXCEPT A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE NEAR 30N140W ON MON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W ON WED. $$ NELSON