000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JAN 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. THE START OF THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DUE TO THE SUDDEN ONSET OF JUST BELOW STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS BOATERS CROSSING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE GAP WIND EVENT STARTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON MORNING...BUT WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AGAIN MON EVENING AND MON NIGHT AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 45 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 16-17 FT AROUND 0600 UTC TUE. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N93W 5N98W TO 6N105W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N110W 4N125W TO 4N140W.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN130W TO 134W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE REGION NEAR 5N77W TO 3N83W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N124W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 125W. SEAS ARE IN THE 8- 11 FT RANGE WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BLOCKING ANY FRONTS FROM MOVING TO FAR EASTWARD. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABOVE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N129W TO 30N133W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N.5137W THEN DISSIPATES TO BEYOND 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W TONIGHT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT WILL INCREASE TO STRONG THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN NOT PROGRESS TO FAR BEFORE STALLING AN DISSIPATING DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E. THESE FRONTS WILL USHER IN A SET OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...23 TO 25 SECONDS...WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUN. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL THEN REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS BY SUN EVENING. SEAS HAVE MAXED OUT AT 20 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED A SECOND AND STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MON NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND FRESH ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE EVENTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. $$ PAW