000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161550 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG N WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE N WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE ON SUN AND PEAK AT 40 KT DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO A MAX OF ABOUT 14 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 15N95W AT MIDDAY SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE ON SUN EVENING. EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF 25 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MON WITH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING MON AFTERNOON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE WINDS ON MON EVENING. THIS SECOND EVENT WILL BE STRONGER WITH 40 KT WINDS PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS...BUILDING SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 18 FT NEAR 14N96W EARLY TUE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE LATE TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N76W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 04N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR 03N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 01N E OF 81.5W WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N92W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AT 05N97W...WITH THE TROUGH THEN EXTENDING NW TO 06N105W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W TO 06N113W...THEN DIPS SW TO 05N135W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N96W TO 05N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N110W TO 05N118W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N130W TO 05N140W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N124W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM 28N120W TO 15N100W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 105-120W...W- NW 5-10 KT N OF 15N E OF 105W...AND NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NNE WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS W OF 110W...BUT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO ALONG 18N BETWEEN 108W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT STRONG NW WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 28.5N...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND STRONG NW-N WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18-23N TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION ON MON...BUT TIGHTEN ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON MON AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE NW SWELLS IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 8-13 FT SEAS...WILL PROPAGATE E INTO THE AREA W OF 114W ON SUN WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 104-107W ON MON. THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUE. ELSEWHERE S OF 15N E OF 110W...MODERATE N-NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED N OF 08N W OF 105W WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH ENE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO STRONG ON SUN NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE FORCE ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS....THEN 20-25 KT NIGHT PULSES ON WED AND THU NIGHTS. FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N BETWEEN 78-81W... INCLUDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SOME ON SUN EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TIGHTEN SUPPORTING STRONG N WINDS ON MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE EVENING. ELSEWHERE FROM 00N TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG NE TRADES ARE OBSERVED FROM 07-12N W OF 122W WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT INTO SUN SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES... THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH STRONG TRADES DEVELOPING AGAIN FROM 07-12N W OF 125W. FURTHER N...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 28N140W WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-21 FT...ARE OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 15N140W...WITH MIXED SWELL RESULTING IN 7-10 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...GENERALLY W OF A LINE FROM 32N132W TO 27N140W...EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STALL ON SUN AS IT WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 28N126W. $$ NELSON