000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JAN 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. THE START TO THIS GALE FORCE EVENT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DUE TO THE SUDDEN ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AROUND 0600 UTC SUNDAY TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY 1200 UTC SUNDAY. BOATERS CROSSING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EVENT STARTS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS 7N95W TO 5N116W TO E OF SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 6N124W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N127W TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 2N137W. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 126W FROM 5N TO 9N. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N107W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 5N TO 12N W OF 123W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND DECREASING THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 7N TO 11N W OF 123W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ TO FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SAT NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS EARLY SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. STRONG SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NW WATERS DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WATERS. WINDS THE NW WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER SAT INTO SUN. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...18 TO 20 SECONDS...WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUN. THEN...THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS BY SUN EVENING. SEAS WILL REACH A MAX OF 21 FT LATE TONIGHT. $$ PAW