000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. THE START TO THIS GALE FORCE EVENT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DUE TO THE SUDDEN ONSET OF GALE
FORCE WINDS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AROUND 0600 UTC
SUNDAY TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY 1200 UTC SUNDAY. BOATERS CROSSING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EVENT STARTS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS 4N94W TO 6N106W TO E OF SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
6N122W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N127W TO 3N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N124W TO 5N126W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N125W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE
TO NEAR 19N110W AND SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ROUGHLY FROM 5N TO 16N W OF 123W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL LOOSEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND DECREASING THE AREA OF STRONG
TRADE WINDS FROM 7N TO 11N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ TO FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS SAT NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SUN. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. STRONG SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NW WATERS
DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE WATERS. WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS
WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF LARGE AND LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL...18 TO 20 SECONDS...WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ON SUN. THEN...THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS BY SUN
EVENING. SEAS WILL REACH A MAX OF 21 FT LATE TONIGHT.  

$$
PAW