000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
STRONG WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. THE START TO THIS GALE FORCE EVENT
WILL BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DUE TO THE SUDDEN ONSET OF GALE
FORCE WINDS AS WINDS INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KT AROUND 06 UTC
SUNDAY TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY 12 UTC SUNDAY. BOATERS CROSSING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EVENT STARTS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N90W TO 06.5N108W TO 05.5N114W TO
05.5N130W TO02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 123WAND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 20N111W AND SW TO BEYOND 25N1409W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 127W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL
LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR
SEA OF CORTEZ ON SUN WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO THE 20-25 KT
RANGE BY SAT EVENING. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. SW WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS ARE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
OVER THE NW WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF
LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...23-25 SECONDS... WHICH WILL
PROPAGATE SE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN.
THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS
WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUN. THEN...THIS SWELL EVENT WILL
REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS BY
SUN EVENING. 

$$
AL