000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 08N93W TO 04N120W TO
03N130W TO 02N140W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND
EXTENDS FROM 10N116W TO 04N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ONLY NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 124W AND 125.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 120W. IN
ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER
NW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ ON SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NW
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BY SUN EVENING. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE
TODAY EXTENDING FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON SAT BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN
FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM
30N134W TO 28N140W. THESE FRONTS WILL MERGE ON SUN OVER THE FAR
NW WATERS. LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...23-25 SECONDS...IN
THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN.
THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS
WILL GENERATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTAL ZONES OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUN. THEN...THIS SWELL EVENT WILL
REACH THE REVILLAGIDO ISLANDS AND LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS BY SUN
EVENING. 

GAP WINDS... 

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL PRODUCE FRESH
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. 

THE NEXT GALE FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS
TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 12 FT.   

$$
GR