000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N92W 5N109W TO 7N117W THEN RESUMES NEAR
6N120W TO 3N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 124W AND 129W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N115W TO
5N119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 10N E OF
TROUGH TO 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE BASIN N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W AND IS
ANCHORED BY 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N127W. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 120W.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE FRONT...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAR NW
WATERS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LARGE LONG
PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO REACH 20-21 FT NEAR
30N140W BY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL PRODUCE FRESH
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE NEXT GALE EVENT FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SUN MORNING. 

$$
PAW