000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU JAN 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N92W 8N103W TO 8N114W THEN RESUMES NEAR
7N120W 3N130W TO 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N115W TO 5N119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE BASIN N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W AND IS
ANCHORED BY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N127W. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 120W.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN NW
WATERS...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW WATERS
BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATING. HOWEVER LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO REACH 20-21 FT NEAR
30N140W BY EARLY SAT MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL PRODUCE FRESH
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE NEXT GALE EVENT FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING SUN MORNING. 

$$
PAW