000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N87W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N88W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N100W TO 07N114W THEN RESUMES NEAR 06N117W TO 03N125W TO 05N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 129W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 09N114W TO 04N117W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...EXTENDS FROM 09N136W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 6N137W TO 03N138W. ...DISCUSSION... THE BROAD RIDGE FORMERLY EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENED AND MOVED OVER THE SE CONUS WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS REDUCED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THUS RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER E...WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT. A 1025 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 32N125W WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS BY EARLY FRI MORNING AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT BRIEFLY ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH SAT...MAINLY S OF 18N W OF 124W. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW AREA WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NW FORECAST WATERS...THUS RESULTING IN A SURGE OF S TO SW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS REACHING 10 TO 11 FT. THE RIDGE HOWEVER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. $$ PAW