000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140321 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 10N86W 6N91W TO 5N96W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N96W 4N105W TO 7N114W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N116W 4N126W TO 6N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 10N112W TO 5N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N133W TO 1007 MB LOW NEAR 6N136W TO 2N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS RELAXED ENOUGH TO ONLY PRODUCE LINGERING STRONG WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA N OF 15N WITHIN 30 NM OF 95W. MAX SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 8 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH BY THU MORNING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N127W AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE LOWER PRES OVER THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED S OF 20N W OF 120W. THE FRONT THAT WAS ACROSS THE NE AREA HAS DISSIPATED. THEN NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY EARLY THU. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W FRI NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NW WATERS THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SWELL WITH SEAS REACHING 15 FT BY FRI NIGHT. THESE LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. $$ PAW