000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GALE WARNING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 8N85W 6N92W TO 5N97W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
5N97W TO 8N111W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N115W 4N123W TO 7N132W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 4N137W TO 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W
AND 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N134W TO 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 6N136W TO 4N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS RELAXED
ENOUGH TO ONLY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA. MAX SEAS
REMAIN NEAR 10 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO FRESH BY WED
AFTERNOON AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N126W AND WILL PERSIST NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED S
OF 20N W OF 120W. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE N FORECAST WATERS FROM
30N125W TO 28N130W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT TO 27N135W. THE FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE...AND WILL
WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON THU. A THIRD
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W FRI NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NW WATERS THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATE. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. 

ELSEWHERE...FRESH NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU. GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20
KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW