000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS NEAR 15.8N94.9W. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 3-
6 HOURS...THEN BECOME 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO 04N96W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N96W THROUGH WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 08N113W
TO 04N129W TO 05N134W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 86W-90W AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 133W-139W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N125W WILL PERSIST NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRI. THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED S OF 20N W OF 121W. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW FORECAST WATERS FROM
30N127W TO 26N138W. THE FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE...AND WILL
WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. A THIRD STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH 140W FRI
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS NW WATERS THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATE.
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 

ELSEWHERE...FRESH NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI. GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20
KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU.

$$
MUNDELL