000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG
EASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH MINIMAL GALE
FORCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THE SHORT PERIOD OF GALES AND INSUFFICIENT
FETCH...EXPECT MAX SEAS TO ONLY REACH 10-11 FT WED.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N88W TO 04N95W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 04N95W AND CONTINUES TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N113W 1010
MB THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N133W 1010 MB TO
LOW PRES NEAR 04N139W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND FROM 03N TO 09N W OF
128W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N125W AND WILL PERSIST
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED S OF 20N W OF 121W. 

THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE NW FORECAST WATERS FROM
30N131W TO 27N136W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN
INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH FORECAST WATERS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG NW MEXICO SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SEAS REACHING TO 5 FT. THE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
TO CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING...THUS REDUCING THE WINDS
IN THE BASIN TO 20 KT OR LESS. OTHERWISE...GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA
THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 8 FT.

$$
NR