000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ALLOWED WINDS TO REACH MINIMAL GALE
FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 13/18Z IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY EARLY THU. WITH SHORT PERIOD OF GALES AND INSUFFICIENT
FETCH...EXPECT MAX SEAS TO ONLY REACH 10-11 FT WED MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N89W TO 05N96W. ITCZ
FROM 05N96W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N112W TO 04N121W THEN
RESUMES NEAR 08N130W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 07N132W TO A 1008 MB
LOW 04N136W TO 03N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1009
MB LOW NEAR 08N112W TO 11N110W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM E OF TROUGH. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N128W WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED. THE END OF A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS FAR NW PART OF
THE AREA FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE LATE WED.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AGAIN PERSIST OVER NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH SAT MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN
THE REGION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...WITH HIGHEST WINDS
EXPECTED FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 122W AND 135W. LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH FORECAST WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS SWELL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MARINE
AND SURF CONDITIONS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE HIGH NEAR
28N123W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE
GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS TO
8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
PAW