000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE JAN 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND ALLOW WINDS TO REACH
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BETWEEN 13/00Z TO 13/12Z IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY EARLY THU WITH SHORT PERIOD OF GALES AND INSUFFICIENT
FETCH...EXPECT MAX SEAS TO ONLY REACH 10-11 FT WED MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 05N89W TO 05N95W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO 07N117W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND
118W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N125W WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
TO AROUND 27N128W THROUGH WED. TRAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
ACROSS FAR NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FRESH WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 12-14 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE LATE WED. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...WITH
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W.
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH FORECAST WATERS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE HIGH NEAR
28N125W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
GAP WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE
GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS TO
6-7 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
PAW