000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE JAN 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N92W TO 05N101W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N101W AND CONTINUES TO 07N128W TO BEYOND
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N
BETWEEN 107W AND 126W.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND ALLOW WINDS TO REACH
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BETWEEN 00Z - 12Z IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
N-NE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THU.
WITH SHORT PERIOD OF GALES AND INSUFFICIENT FETCH...EXPECT MAX
SEAS TO ONLY REACH 10-11 FT WED MORNING.

...DISCUSSION...

1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N124W WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 27N125W THROUGH WED. TRAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS ACROSS FAR NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N138W TO
28N140W. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRESH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 12-14 FT SEAS IN NW
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN INTO LATE WED.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH SAT AND MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE REGION BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED FROM 08N TO
15N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH FORECAST WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS
IN NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE HIGH NEAR
32N124W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. WINDS
WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF
PANAMA LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH MAX SEAS TO 6-7 FT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL