000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121001 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N92W TO 05N101W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N101W AND CONTINUES TO 07N128W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N110W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THESE STRONG TRADES ARE AIDING IN INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN TRADES N OF THE ITCZ WED EVENING FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 132W. LONG PERIOD...19-22 SECONDS...NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SURF ZONE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED DECREASING THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION LATER THIS MORNING AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ NR