000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JAN 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO 07N114W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 07N128.5W TO 05N137W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N106W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ...FROM 08.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 122W...AND FROM 07N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W. THESE STRONG TRADES ARE AIDING IN INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN TRADES N OF THE ITCZ WED EVENING FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 138W. LONG PERIOD...19-22 SECONDS...NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TONIGHT AND SPREAD THROUGH DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TUE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SURF ZONE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT TUE. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED DECREASING THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT TUE NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ STRIPLING