000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112159 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 05N91W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO07N112W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 07N129W TO 05N136W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 00N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 30N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N106W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ...AND ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS FROM 08.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 121W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLYAND SHIFT SW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO LOCALLY STRENGTHEN TRADES N OF THE ITCZ WED MORNING. LONG PERIOD...19-22 SECONDS...NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TUE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SURF ZONE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT TUE. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED DECREASING THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND FALL BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ STRIPLING