000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111516 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N84W TO 04N94W TO 08N107W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N107W TO 06N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 17N111W AND SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO LOCALLY STRENGTHEN TRADES N OF THE ITCZ WED MORNING. LONG PERIOD...19-22 SECONDS...NW SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NW WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TUE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS NEAR SHORE CONDITIONS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT TUE. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELLS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED DECREASING THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND FALL BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ AL