000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110952 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM TO 14N95.5W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WINDS WILL VEER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS EVENT WILL SUBSIDE WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE MORNING THROUGH WED AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE WINDS PEAKING AT AROUND 30 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N84W TO 05N94W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N94W AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N113W TO 06N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 105W AND FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W. THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT MOVED N AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY...THUS ACTING TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND AS A RESULT DIMINISHING WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS. THIS FRONT IS USHERING A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD...17-22 SECONDS...NW SWELL INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N110W AND SW TO BEYOND 21N140W. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ DECREASES. AS A RESULT TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE TRADEWIND REGION. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATES REGIONAL SEAS THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF WATERS W OF 100W. BY EARLY WED COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA S OF 20N W OF A LINE FROM 20N108W TO 00N128W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 KT WED MORNING. $$ NR