000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JAN 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXITING THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM TO 14N95.5W. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 40 KT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS DOWNSTREAM BUILDING TO 15 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON MORNING AND RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON EVENING. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS EVENT WILL SUBSIDE WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TUE MORNING THROUGH WED AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE WINDS PEAKING AT AROUND 30 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N90W TO 06.5N105W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N112W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS STALLING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N135W TO 26.5N140W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N124W WAS SUPPORTING WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE E OF THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY...BUT THESE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND N OF 30N AND EXITED THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HELP USHER IN A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD...18-22 SECONDS...NW SWELL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 20-22 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N106W AND SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MOST OF THE TRADEWIND REGION. HOWEVER STRONG TRADES PERSIST IN A NARROW ZONE FROM 06.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W...WHILE FRESH TRADES CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 117W AND 133W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TO MAINTAIN THE FRESH TRADES THROUGH MID WEEK. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATES REGIONAL SEAS THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF WATERS W OF 100W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE WATERS S OF 20N MONDAY EVENING. THE NEW NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. BY EARLY TUE COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N111W TO 00N135W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ STRIPLING