000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS STALLING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N136.5W TO 27N140W.. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N124W WAS SUPPORTING WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE E OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT THESE WINDS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND N OF 30N AND EXITED THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD...18-22 SECONDS...NW SWELL INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 20-22 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM TO 14.5N95.5W. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 40 KT THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS DOWNSTREAM BUILDING TO 15 FT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON MORNING AND RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS EVENT WILL SUBSIDE WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82.5W TO 05N95W TO 07N107W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N114W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 114W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N106W AND SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER FRESH TRADES PERSIST FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 117W AND 131W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING THE FRESH TRADES. LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATES REGIONAL SEAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF WATERS W OF 102W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE WATERS S OF 20N TONIGHT. THE NEW NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. BY EARLY TUE COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N111W TO 00N135W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ STRIPLING