000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SUN JAN 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
27N123W IS SUPPORTING WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE E OF THE
FRONT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD FRONT LIFTS
NE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THIS LOW MOVING FURTHER
FROM THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP USHER
IN A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD...18-22 SECONDS...NW SWELL INTO
THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR
20-21 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MON MORNING
AND RAPIDLY DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON. NE SWELL
GENERATED BY THIS EVENT WILL SUBSIDE WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8
FT THROUGH MON NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 05N95W TO 07N104W TO
07N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N109W TO 06N136W TO BEYOND
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 114W
AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 16N111W AND SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED WHICH HAS LOOSENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW
25 KT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH FRESH TRADES PREVAILING. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
MAINTAINING THE FRESH TRADES. THE NW SWELL PROPAGATING OVER THE
AREA CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF WATERS W OF 100W. SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER THE WATERS S OF
20N. THE NEW NW SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. BY EARLY TUE COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N111W
TO 00N135W.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-25 KT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20 KT DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$
AL