000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN JAN 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
REACHED 30N141W THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN...AND INCREASE SW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NW WATERS N OF 28N AND E OF THE
FRONT NEAR 1200 UTC TODAY. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
COLD FRONT LIFTS NE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THIS
LOW MOVING FURTHER FROM THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH WINDS TO 20
KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BY EARLY MON MORNING. BEHIND
THIS FRONT A FRESH PULSE OF LONG PERIOD...18-22 SECONDS...NW
SWELL WILL MOVE SE INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED TO
THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 20-21 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TAIL REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COOL DENSE AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT STARTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL START TO VEER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THUS DECREASING WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N95W TO 06N102W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N102W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N120W TO BEYOND
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 14N
BETWEEN 106W AND 125W AND FROM 03N TO 10N W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
 
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF FORECAST WATERS
NEAR 27N122W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N109W AND SW TO
20N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 127W.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
MAINTAIN A GRADUALLY SHRINKING ZONE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. NW SWELL IS CONTINUING
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS THIS EVENING WHILE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING...AND IS DOMINATING SEAS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 82W...WITH PEAK SEAS OF 10-13 FT
COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 06.5N TO 25N BETWEEN 95W AND 132W
THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE COVERAGE OF COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER W
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHEN WINDS INSIDE THE SW GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THEN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG AGAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS GAP WIND FLOW WILL WEAKEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT BLOWING ACROSS PANAMA AND ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA...TO AROUND 06N SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8 FT DOWNSTREAM
DURING THIS TIME.

$$
NR