000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SAT JAN 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT JUST W OF 150W IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NW
WATERS E OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH
THE LOW MOVING FURTHER FROM THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WILL RAPIDLY LOOSEN AND DIMINISH WINDS
TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BY MON MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN A FRESH PULSE OF LONG PERIOD...19-21
SECOND...SWELL INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 23 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN NIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE SW GULF TONIGHT. COOL DENSE
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE BY SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL START TO VEER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 10N85W TO 07N92W. ITCZ FROM 07N93W
TO07N100W TO 07.5N105W TO 07N117W TO 03N126W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W TO 101W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180NM
N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 136W.  

...DISCUSSION...
 
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NE PORTIONS NEAR 28N124W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N105W AND SW TO BEYOND 18N150W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 131W. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND MAINTAIN A
GRADUALLY SHRINKING ZONE OF  FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ THROUGH MONDAY. NW SWELL IS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING...AND IS DOMINATING
SEAS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 95W...WITH
PEAK SEAS OF 10-13 FT COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 08N TO 26N
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVERAGE OF
COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SW
MEXICO TONIGHT...AS WELL AS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

$$
STRIPLING