000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SAT JAN 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NW
WATERS E OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
SHIFT N OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE COLD FRONT LIFTS NE AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER FROM THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS WILL RAPIDLY LOOSEN AND DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT
OR LESS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS BY MON MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A FRESH SET OF LONG PERIOD...19-21 SECOND...SWELL INTO
THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR
23 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE SW GULF TONIGHT. COOL
DENSE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE BY SUN MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL START TO VEER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N91W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N91W TO 07N100W TO 08N106W TO 05N123W TO 05N131W TO
BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W TO 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND
118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 20N113W AND SW TO BEYOND 25N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ OVER THE FORECAST WATERS. NW
SWELL IS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS
WHILE SUBSIDING. COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 95W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COVERAGE OF COMBINED
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

$$
AL