000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091000 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JAN 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE DISCUSSION AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT S TO SW WINDS OF GALE FORCE STARTING SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO THE 20-30 KT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND EQUAL OR LESS THAN 20 KT BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 20 FT IN NW SWELL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY ON SUN MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SUN EVENING...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. PEAK WINDS AND SEAS DURING THIS EVENT ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 12 KT...GENERALLY OCCURRING N OF 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 04N83W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N90W AND CONTINUES TO 06N113W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 102W...AND FROM 02N TO 11N W OF 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N126W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 13N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 132W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48...HOWEVER WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IN STRENGTH ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 11 FT IS PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTS OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 97W...WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN HEIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. $$ NR